Calibration

For every market that resolved, we look at the YES price 24 hours before settlement (from our own snapshots) and compare it with the outcome. A perfectly calibrated venue resolves YES 70% of the time when priced at 70¢. Brier score: lower is better (0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip).

Resolved markets with a 24h-before price: 45 (last 7 days: 45).

Running Brier score by venue

Venue	n	Brier
kalshi	21	0.126
polymarket	24	0.026

Reliability table (all time)

Priced (24h before)	n	Resolved YES	Rate
0-10¢	18	0	0%
10-20¢	3	0	0%
20-30¢	4	0	0%
30-40¢	3	1	33%
40-50¢	2	2	100%
50-60¢	4	3	75%
60-70¢	1	1	100%
70-80¢	1	1	100%
80-90¢	1	0	0%
90-100¢	8	8	100%

Raw ledger: resolutions.csv (last 90 days, CC BY 4.0). The numbers above use the full ledger. Download the full history from the repo.