Calibration

For every market that resolved, we look at the YES price 24 hours before settlement (from our own snapshots) and compare it with the outcome. A perfectly calibrated venue resolves YES 70% of the time when priced at 70¢. Brier score: lower is better (0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip).

Resolved markets with a 24h-before price: 12743 (last 7 days: 2048).

Running Brier score by venue

Venue	n	Brier
kalshi	10635	0.123
polymarket	2108	0.095

Reliability table (all time)

Priced (24h before)	n	Resolved YES	Rate
0-10¢	4593	176	4%
10-20¢	1370	240	18%
20-30¢	1055	293	28%
30-40¢	943	332	35%
40-50¢	843	390	46%
50-60¢	626	331	53%
60-70¢	536	325	61%
70-80¢	512	365	71%
80-90¢	591	503	85%
90-100¢	1674	1623	97%

Raw ledger: resolutions.csv (last 90 days, CC BY 4.0). The numbers above use the full ledger. Download the full history from the repo.