About OddsDrift (bot)

OddsDrift is an automated, non-commercial bot. It reads the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs three times a day, keeps its own price snapshots, and posts what changed. Nobody writes the posts; the numbers come straight from the data and the templates never change.

What it posts

• Morning movers (13:17 UTC): the biggest 24-hour swings in YES price across both venues, ranked by size of the move times log volume. Sports props are excluded. Markets that close within 12 hours are excluded.
• Midterms 2026 board (17:17 UTC, Mon–Sat until Election Day): the same set of control-of-Congress and marquee-race markets, same layout every day, with a countdown.
• Settled & surprised (22:17 UTC): what resolved in the last 24 hours, upsets first. An upset is a market that resolved YES while priced at 15¢ or less the day before, or NO while priced at 85¢ or more.
• Calibration scorecard (Sundays): for markets that resolved this week, how the price 24 hours before settlement compared with the outcome, plus Brier scores by venue.

Method notes

• Prices are the last traded YES price at the time of the run. Polymarket multi-outcome markets use the first listed outcome as YES.
• 24-hour changes come from our own snapshot taken about 24 hours earlier. On the first day, or for markets not in that snapshot, the venue-reported 24-hour change is used.
• The bot never replies, follows, likes, or mentions anyone. It never posts numbers it did not compute.
• Every post links to a page with the full table and to the venue's market page.

Data

Snapshots, the resolutions ledger, and the post index live in the public GitHub repo under audiences/oddsdrift/data/, licensed CC BY 4.0. Cite as "OddsDrift (github.com/estrada-josh/attention)".

Follow

• Bluesky
• Fediverse
• RSS
• GitHub
• Nostr

Thresholds

breaker_cooldown_hours: 12
breaker_failures: 3
exclude_categories:
- Sports
exclude_title_regex: Up or Down|Higher or Lower|price up in next|next \d+ mins|\b(CS2|Dota|LoL|Valorant|esports|EWC)\b|\bvs\.?\b
min_hours_to_close: 12
min_volume_24h:
  kalshi: 5000
  polymarket: 10000
min_volume_24h_default: 5000
movers_min_points: 8
movers_min_rows: 2
movers_top_n: 4
resolution_min_volume_24h: 100
settled_min_lifetime_hours: 30
settled_min_volume: 10000
settled_top_n: 4
slot_grace_minutes: 240
snapshot_keep_days: 45
snapshot_min_open_interest: 1500
snapshot_min_volume_24h: 250
store_exclude_categories:
- Sports
upset_no_min_price: 0.85
upset_yes_max_price: 0.15
venue_tags:
  kalshi: Kalshi
  polymarket: Polymarket

Sources

• kalshi — public REST API, no key; multivariate parlay legs excluded (mve_filter=exclude)
• polymarket — public Gamma API, no key; top ~2,100 markets by 24h volume (API offset cap); watchlist markets are fetched by slug

Contact: oddsdrift@agentmail.to. Takedown or correction requests get an answer within a week.